Risk, Release and the Real-World Fallout of Criminal Justice Policy

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by Professor Kieran McCartan

Currently, there is a crisis in prisons and probation in England and Wales, with increased prison numbers, a lack of space and services within the criminal justice landscape, resulting in a breakdown in prison structure and function. The current governments response to this is to release prisoners with less than a third of their prison sentence left to serve early, although certain populations are caveated (sexual and violent offences), this release plan is based on sentence length, index offence and not on the person’s risk.

This is putting pressure on an already underfunded system that has had limited investment over the last 20 years, straining staffing levels and prison capacity. This means prison and probation are already under pressure with the existing population, and any new, increased, or changed population will put the system under even more strain. Currently, prisons are experiencing a crisis with too many people in the system, not enough capacity for the detention of prisoner’s safely and too few staff to run the estate effectively. The current crisis is a result of a series of factors, and policy decisions, including underinvestment in the system over an extended period, increased arrest and incarceration rates, increased breaches and recalls to prison, and an increase in longer-term sentences (especially those linked to violent and sexual offending). This has strained an already overburdened system.). This has strained an already overburdened system. In England and Wales, approximately 86,000 people are in prison, costing  £60,018 per person per year.  It is important to acknowledge, contrary to popular belief, that prison is not a cheap option. Prisons are expensive to run, maintain and keep secure, particularly when you consider the aging facilitates, especially in some Victorian era prisons, and any reduction or cut back in funding the prison estate can result in a risk to public safety. In England and Wales, consecutive governments have debated building more prisons, but this has not occurred at the rate it needed to, and some prions are now not fit for purpose and should not be in use. Additionally, when this is coupled with an overreliance on prison for the bulk of offenders, even low risk and short term prisoners, this means there is over population in prisons that are not running at capacity with individuals some of which could be managed in the community. Therefore, how does the government and the prison estate solve this challenge?

 One solution to ease pressure in prisons is to release prisoners earlier to free up capacity, but this only shifts the risk upstream to probation and community justice organisations.

Additionally, when the previous Conservative government recruited more police officers, it did not replicate this increase with a similar one in prison and probation staffing, which is particularly important as at the same time their privatisation and then renationalisation of probation services services led many experienced staff to leave, therefore creating increased challenges for community risk management. Research indicates that the quality of staff working with people matters in rehabilitating them (i.e., recovery capital). The early release of prisoners is not a new approach in England and Wales, as the same thing happened last year. Interestingly, this is not just an England and Wales challenge, with similar pattern’s being seen in  Scotland. Therefore, it is important to question whether the current approach to prosecution, sentencing, release and community integration is working. Or do we need a new approach?

The current short-term solution is to release people with less than a third of their sentence left to serve. The idea is that the closer they are to release, the more ready they are to be safely released and managed in the community. This scheme is not open to all prisoners; people who have committed sexual and violent offences are excluded, as well as people who have been convicted of manslaughter. Recently, the government has changed the inclusion criteria for early release, in part based on the overturned release of the killers of PC Andy Harper as a consequence of public and political pressure. The challenge is that many of the prisoners who are being released early have higher rates of breach and recall, therefore are quickly returned to prison. Therefore, the current solution will not have the desired effect. In reality, the approach needs to be based on risk and risk assessment with lower risk people being released and managed in the community while higher risk people and managed in prison. Risk is complex and individualised, but it is important as it is the foundation of effective public safety and community protection; therefore to be effective risk needs to be at the centre of any release or retention plan for prisoners. Risk assessment in England and Wales is based on actuarial risk assessment tools coupled with professional judgement, which enables informed judgement about individual cases. This means a more realistic risk management plan can be developed and rolled out, reducing breach, recall, and reoffending. A longer term solution to the prison crisis  requires a reframing and reconceptualising of risk assessment, sentencing and release. With the growing political and practical focus on public health approaches to crime, offending and related behaviours (i.e. an Epidemiological criminology approach, that understanding, responding to and prevention crime at an individual, interpersonal, community and societal level and understanding how these intersect with each other). This approach sees offending behaviour as a life-course, developmental issue framed within a bio-psycho-social framework(that crime is caused by the interaction of biology, psychology and social interactions in people, which is why the causes of crime are similar but different for each person) that understands these behaviours in terms of risk and protective factors. In terms of risk and release, this means understanding the individual through their experiences and how these shape their future behaviour.

Release from prison and return to the community needs to be based on actual, not perceived, risk. However, this takes time and resources, but it will reduce future harm, be more victim-centred, and save costs/resources in the future. Crime is an emotive topic that affects people, communities, and society; therefore, any issue that affects them, like early release, needs careful consideration and appropriate planning.

Reflections on the June 2026 One City Gathering: Inclusive, Equitable and Sustainable Economy

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This blog has been co-authored by Alicia Hallatt and Allan Macleod from the Civic and Inclusivity team.


At a time when universities are coming under scrutiny to be more than just places of academic teaching and research, UWE Bristol is continuing to actively embed its civic ambition across the institution. Our role in Bristol One City reflects this commitment. Given our role within the region, the latest One City Gathering, which focused on building an inclusive, equitable and sustainable economy, was especially relevant. Some of the team that attended have reflected on the discussions they had and what it means for UWE Bristol and our work within the city.

Across the day, a consistent theme emerged: ask communities what they want and need to thrive, then take action that both includes and enables them. The desire for collective, collaborative action was powerful, running through every session and conversation. The One City Gathering’s keynote speaker, Andy Haldane CBE, summarised it as a need to move beyond co-creation to something more equitable, ensuring all affected parties have a place at the table and everyone leaves equipped with the skills and knowledge to continue growing.

discussions around tables
Credit: Bristol City Office

The four workshops covered Bristol’s response to helping those Not in Employment Education or Training (NEETs), how we can tackle the gender, race and disability pay gaps, delivering a circular economy that provides economic opportunity and discussion about meaningful community development in light of the upcoming Pride in Place and Pride of Place programmes in Hartcliffe.

One contributor  to the NEET workshop noted how quickly young people calibrate their aspirations to what they perceive as attainable, what opportunities are visible, and what fits-in with their peers; this was identified as a leading factor in why some Bristol wards sadly continue to experience persistently low social mobility.   Addressing this is a key aim for Bristol One City’s partners, highlighted by the goal that no-one’s future prospects should be defined by where they have come from. Colleagues reflected on the recent Milburn report and discussed the challenge locally. What is clear is that Bristol has a substantial number of impactful initiatives, but these need better coordination to make them attainable to employers, trainers, and those at risk of becoming NEET. The result will be not only improved individual outcomes but also stronger societal outcomes, increased capacity for local organisations, and a stronger regional economy as more people are able to contribute, regardless of their background.

people sharing thier thoughts with post its on bpard
Credit: Bristol City Office

The Civic and Inclusivity team are actively trying to tackle many of the issues raised in the pay gap discussion. UWE Bristol is working towards becoming an anti-racist university , acknowledging this will require continued effort and listening. Further, our team has been building understanding around how our disabled and global majority students can be better supported in placements, mentorship programmes and bespoke extra-curricular opportunities to ensure that those who have been left behind in the past have more equitable opportunities to succeed in the future and reward gaps are reduced.

The key takeaway from the One City Gathering was clear: trust is built through listening, and impact is sustained through collaboration. Our connections and our communities are our biggest strengths. Our huge thanks goes to Bristol One City for arranging such a packed morning that enabled connections between such a diverse audience.  At UWE Bristol, we are keen to build on this momentum, collaborating with partners to connect talent, share knowledge and create opportunities. If you are interested in collaborating with us, please contact us at uwebusiness@uwe.ac.uk or volunteering@uwe.ac.uk.


Innovation with impact: Supporting the World Federation on Incontinence and Pelvic Problems World Continence Week.

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This week is World Continence Week (15th to 21st June 2026) and researchers from UWE Bristol’s School of Health and Social Wellbeing are working to promote better bladder and bowel health at UWE Bristol and across the region. Bladder and Bowel leakage affects about 1 in 5 adults, which is about as common as hay fever, but is an issue that people are often reluctant to discuss.

Led by Prof. Nikki Cotterill, we are working with the Bristol Active City Network to raise awareness of how bladder and bowel leakage can affect people’s ability to get out and about and engage in exercise and other activities. For World Continence Week Nikki will be leading a webinar for the network, building upon previous engagement work with them on a pathway redesign project, aiming to help people to talk about bladder and bowel leakage and to access available self-help. In particular, bladder and bowel leakage can be the difference between taking part in exercise or being too embarrassed or worried about an accident. Addressing this, provides an opportunity to keep people in the activities they enjoy and socialising with friends and family.

A key resource to raise awareness and promote self-help is the CONfidence app, a self-help app developed by UWE Bristol researchers in conjunction with the Bladder and Bowel Confidence Health Integration Team (BABCON HIT) and Expert Self Care. The app has been downloaded by almost 20,000 people and has reached 20 countries. This App has been Co-created with people who have experienced leakage symptoms and national experts specialising in bladder and bowel care. Anyone experiencing bladder and bowel leakage can download the app for free. This gives access to practical advice and information on how to improve their bladder and bowel health.

Further tackling taboos, UWE Bristol has spearheaded the Boys Need Bins campaign, aiming to raise awareness about incontinence in men and the need for bins in men’s toilets. UWE Bristol is taking part in a pilot placing sanitary waste bins in men’s toilets across the Frenchay campus. This allows for the disposal of incontinence products including incontinence pads, stoma care items or other medical and sanitary products. Researchers are working with system partners to roll this out in other organisations across Bristol aiming for a ‘Boys need Bins Bristol’.

We need to talk more about bladder and bowel health to break down the stigma preventing symptom improvement. We are always keen to hear from anybody with an interest in this area, so please do contact Prof Nikki Cotterill with any thoughts or suggestions this World Continence Week: nikki.cotterill@uwe.ac.uk.

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