Tag: climate change

New paper identifies key areas for future retrofit research

Author Centre for Advanced Built Environment Research | Posted on

Authors: Freya Wise and Alice Moncaster

We’re very pleased that our latest paper has been published in Applied Energy and is now freely available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.128895

Around the world, our existing buildings need retrofitting to reduce their energy and associated carbon emissions and make them fit for the future. Building retrofit is therefore a critical activity for both climate change mitigation and adaption. Almost three years ago, in November 2023, Alice Moncaster and I decided to conduct a systematic literature review of the global, quantitative, academic literature on retrofit. This was partly in response to a question during the creation of the UK Net Zero Carbon Building Standard1, something like: ‘what do we know about the embodied carbon impacts of retrofit?’

As we started by investigating previous reviews in this field, we realised that there would actually be significant value in going back a step and creating a comprehensive, systematic mapping review of the trends and gaps in the broader field of building retrofit for energy and carbon reduction.

What did we do?

Our initial search terms produced 9,334 across, Science Direct, Scopus and JSTOR, which we narrowed down to a mere 1,408 for further review, focussing on peer-reviewed journal articles published between 2017-2024 (this involved a second search stage in January 2025 to update the review to all papers in published in 2024).

Our final dataset2 included 1,058 papers and we used detailed thematic analysis to assess the abstracts of these papers to identify topics, methods, types of retrofit and other aspects, and bibliometric network analysis to identify keyword and author clusters.

What did we find?

The research was published in 192 journals in multiple fields and covered 96 countries, although there was a strong research focus in Europe and China and a dearth of research in parts of Africa and in Oceania (Figure 1). Italy (110), China (105), the UK (81) and Spain (77) were the most researched countries. More research is therefore needed in under-examined areas and climates as the most suitable retrofits vary across regions.

Figure 1: Bubble graph plotting the number of papers per million of population per country.

Alongside the need for more research in certain regions, we found three key gaps where further research is needed.

1. Just less than a third of papers considered embodied or lifecycle carbon, with the majority only focussing on the operational phase. Concerningly, this percentage didn’t meaningfully increase over the studied period (Figure 2). Neglecting embodied carbon means that the carbon cost is not considered and retrofits may actually be using more carbon than they save, or at least not making optimal savings. More retrofit studies should therefore include embodied carbon in a full lifecycle assessment.

2. Only around 10% of the papers examined the performance of retrofits in real life. The other 90% were based on modelling and simulation, which is concerning given the well-known performance gap between predicted and actual retrofit outcomes3. More studies of real world retrofit performance and comparison with and calibration of models is therefore critical to ensure that real savings are achieved.

3. Most importantly, after this summer of global heatwaves, 98% of studies examine retrofit using past climate data. Only 2% of papers considered the effects of future climate conditions on retrofit performance. These studies identified that considering future conditions affected the most suitable retrofits to create carbon savings and make buildings fit for purpose in a changing climate. It is therefore vital that studies stop relying on historic data and start designing retrofit in response to predicted future conditions.

To explore all these findings and all the details please enjoy the full paper from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.128895

We hope that this paper and the accompanying dataset of papers will inform and inspire new, targeted research in these critical areas.

References

1. UK Net Zero Carbon Building Standard https://www.nzcbuildings.co.uk

2. Full dataset of the analysed papers available at: 10.5255/UKDA-SN-857925

3. Preprint of our paper on energy modelling for heritage buildings which discussed the performance gap http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.7536546

Sustainable buildings in Trondheim

Author Centre for Advanced Built Environment Research | Posted on

Author: Alice Moncaster

Trondheim is just outside the Arctic Circle, and late November means limited daylight and plenty of snow and treacherous ice. Winters are not as cold as they used to be however according to our host. This is an increasingly common refrain. And while you might not mind milder winters, the excessively hot summers and increasing disasters around the world are making it absolutely crystal clear that we all need to do whatever we can to limit carbon emissions and climate change.

Nidaros Cathedral and Trondheim by night

I was in Trondheim at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) for two events trying to address the 40% or so of our carbon emissions which are from the construction and operation of our buildings. The first event was a conference, part of the long-established Sustainable Built Environment (SBE) series.  I first attended an SBE conference in Helsinki in 2011, and over the years they have led to the development of a shared community of practice around the world. I particularly enjoyed Trondheim’s SBE25 Cities and Climate Change. Organised by Rolf Andre Bohne and colleagues, and Scientific Committee led by Freja Rasmussen, it had a distinctively friendly and open atmosphere, which had a noticeable impact both for early career researchers (who were less nervous), and for more senior researchers (who were less combative!). Of the research shared, I’d pick out the ARV project presented by Niki Gaitani (NTNU) and others, and the INDICATE-LIFE project presented by Giovanna Cassavia (TU Graz) and others, for special interest.

I was also proud to present (CABER Visiting Prof) Morwenna Slade’s beautifully illustrated paper (Blenheim Palace! Medieval churches!) explaining how understanding the vulnerabilities of individual heritage buildings, combined with projected localised climate change, can help develop maintenance plans towards future resilience – and how this ‘conservation philosophy’ can also be applied to improve resilience across all buildings. On the second day I then presented my former student Jon Andrew’s paper based on his MSc dissertation, which explored the motivations and actions for the new student accommodation at UWE – why Passivhaus was supported, while aspirations for net zero whole life carbon were dropped.

Conference dinner at E.C.Dahls brewery with new colleagues and old

The conference illustrated again for me how important direct and personal communication is. We are bombarded with webpages and reports and social media notifications (yes, I see myself 🙂 ) every day, and yet nothing works as well as talking to each other.  This is a problem, as only a few have the opportunity; there is a very real financial limitation on who can attend conferences, and often, on top of that, personal limitations due to disability and caring responsibilities. So, while attending conferences is amazing, those of us lucky enough to be there need to remain conscious of the voices which aren’t heard. There were important lessons in all the papers presented, but how many will read them or even hear of them outside Trondheim, I wondered?

Alexander Passer, Operating Agent for Annex 89, presents to the group

The second half of the week was spent in a scientific meeting of the IEA EBC Annex 89, ‘Ways to implement net-zero whole life carbon buildings’. Colleagues from around the world came together to develop and discuss our emerging results and the variations in what is happening in the 30+ countries we represent.  As a subtask 4 co-lead, I am particularly interested in gathering case studies which help us understand how the transition to low carbon buildings happens in practice – in projects, through industry initiatives, and in policy. How do we make it happen more widely?

A tour of the plant room in the ZEB Lab at NTNU

It was super interesting to hold the meeting in the Zero Emission Building Laboratory at NTNU, and to have a tour of the plant room. In sub-zero temperatures it clearly worked – and the mass timber construction, including the stairwell, made an attractive and comfortable environment. As a living laboratory, the building is also used as a demonstrator, and the plant room is huge just so that visiting groups can enter and see everything working.

But is this the future of the built environment? I think not.  ‘Net zero’ means that the carbon is paid back over the years, but the construction still costs carbon upfront, even in timber. We don’t have the carbon budget remaining to rebuild our cities. In Europe we already have the building stock we need. Our dual focus now needs to be on retrofit and adaptation for future climates, and on social change to ensure everyone has a roof over their head.

Annex 89 participants braving the ice for a group photo

CoolScapes: Co-Learning across Cultures in a Warming City

Author Centre for Advanced Built Environment Research | Posted on

Author: Ghada Karaki

CoolScapes is an experiment in co-producing solutions to questions of thermal comfort by leveraging the social and vernacular knowledge of migrant communities.

Context

Climate projections for the UK show higher temperatures and changing precipitation patterns that will lead to hotter and drier summers (SWM, 2021). Increased temperatures are expected to cause thermal discomfort and contribute to health problems, depending on the communities and their cultural heritage. Bristol is an increasingly diverse city, with 28.4% of its residents from ethnic minority groups and speaking 90 languages (Bristol City Council, 2023), and is increasingly attracting migrants from warmer parts of the world. Many new migrant communities have the knowledge and practices needed to adapt to a warming climate, drawing on local traditional vernacular knowledge and practices. 

The current practice to retrofit in the UK is based on a step-by-step and incremental approach of increasing insulation, improving airtightness, and installing renewable energy technologies (Killip & Fawcett, 2022). While this approach effectively reduces winter heating demand, it can have unintended consequences, such as excessive heat in summer or inadequate ventilation (Godefroy & Baeli, 2024, Wingfield et al. 2011). In addition, there is little innovation in building retrofit design and a lack of understanding of buildings and their occupants as a socio-technical system. 

We will address in this pilot study the challenges of thermal comfort, working with migrant communities from warmer climatic zones (e.g. the Middle East and East Africa). By understanding their thermal comfort perceptions, cooling behavioural adaptations, and vernacular practices, we aim to co-develop culturally informed responses to the climate crisis.

Our Approach

We used a Social Practice Framework (SPF) to map how migrant communities adapt to heat and cooling. Alongside creative storytelling, we integrated live scribing, a visual note-taking process that captured participants’ words, examples, and sketches in real-time. Storytelling and live scribing encouraged participants to share knowledge, experiences, and needs. Because comfort is felt emotionally as well as physically, live scribing made discussions visible: participants could point, edit, and build on what was drawn, turning comments into co-developed output.

What’s been done so far

Building on the view that practices are continually reperformed (Shove & Southerton, 2000), we used storytelling and live scribing as inquiry tools.

  • We ran multiple workshops with first-generation migrants from warmer climatic zones, across different ages and genders.
  • Sessions centred on perceptions of thermal comfort and documented cooling practices (architectural forms, materials, window and door configurations, courtyard use, natural ventilation, communal routines, clothing, use of shade/space, hydration).
  • Live scribing captured narratives and examples in the moment; participants edited and extended the drawings to clarify meanings (e.g., how to make shared spaces work better and how to get cross-breezes flowing).
  • The resulting visuals act as shared artefacts that we can transform into digital posts and a finding brief.

CoolScape Workshop I – 23rd June 2025, live scribing by Jasmine Thompson. Funded by CABER-UWE​

Big thank you!

Thank you to all our wonderful participants, Stacey-Ann, Gofaone, Nijood, Nkoane, and Emmanuel-Ian, for your time and stories. We also appreciate the collaboration with ACH, especially Jah Caballero, for the great work in facilitating the workshops with the participants, and Watershed for their support. Many thanks to Jasemine Thompson for the great work live scribing the workshops.

We gratefully appreciate CABER-UWE for funding the pilot study.

What’s next

We are analysing scribed boards, notes and recordings. A summary and next steps will follow in the coming months.

Contact us: Ghada Karaki (email: ghada.karaki@uwe.ac.uk)

Glyn Evertt (email: glyn.evertt@uwe.ac.uk)

References

Bristol City Council. (2023). Bristol Key Facts 2023. https://www.bristol.gov.uk/files/documents/1840-bristol-key-facts-2023/file

Godefroy, J. and Baeli, M. (2024) Retrofit Revisit: 10 Case Studies. London: Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers (CIBSE). ISBN 978-914543-92-0. https://www.cibse.org/knowledge-research/knowledge-portal/retrofit-revisit-2024

Killip, G., Fawcett, T. (2022). Expert views of building retrofit in the UK: Residential, non-residential, and heritage building renovations. In ECEEE Summer Study Proceedings – Efficiency and beyond: innovative energy demand policies. European Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy.

Shove, E., Southerton, D. (2000). Defrosting the Freezer: From Novelty to Convenience: A Narrative of Normalisation. Journal of Material Culture. 5(3): 301-319. https://doi.org/10.1177/135918350000500303

Sustainability West Midlands (2021). Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) Technical Report: Summary for England. Climate Change Committee. https://www.ukclimaterisk.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/CCRA-Evidence-Report-England-Summary-Final.pdf

Wingfield, J., Bell, M., Miles-Shenton, D., South, T., and Lowe, R.J. (2011). Evaluating the impact of an enhanced energy performance standard on load-bearing masonry domestic construction: Understanding the gap between designed and real performance: lessons from Stamford Brook. Project Report. London: Department for Communities and Local Government. ISBN 978-1-4098-2891-4.

Digital Construction Climate Nexus 2025: can digital construction become a genuine driver of climate action?

Author Centre for Advanced Built Environment Research | Posted on

by Ahmed Hagras, Senior Lecturer in Building Information Modelling, Co-programme leader MSc BIM

In 2024, we brought people together from across the built environment to ask a big question: “Are We There Yet?” It was a moment to pause and reflect on our collective progress in using digital technologies to meet the demands of the climate crisis. The conversation was open and honest.

What became clear was that while there has been real progress, we’re still a long way from fully connecting our digital capabilities with meaningful climate outcomes. So, for 2025, we’re not asking the question again. We’re taking the next step.

Digital Construction Climate Nexus 2025, hosted at UWE, is built around a new theme: From Asking to Acting. This year is all about moving the conversation forward, focusing less on where we stand and more on what we’re doing. The event brings together a rich mix of academics, industry professionals, researchers, and students to explore how digital construction can become a genuine driver of climate action. It’s not about repeating the same talking points. It’s about sharing what’s working, what’s scalable, and where the most significant challenges still lie.

One of the real strengths of this event is the diversity of its voices. You’ll hear from those working on the ground with retrofit projects, those pushing innovation in monitoring and data capture, and those developing strategies to embed carbon thinking into the earliest design stages. The breakout sessions, particularly the one led in partnership with buildingSMART UK & Ireland and nima, offer a space where technical experts, standards organisations, and academics can come together to explore real solutions.

Another exciting addition this year is the UWE & RBI Breakout Room, which will shine a spotlight on Knowledge Transfer Partnership (KTP) opportunities and success stories. This space focuses on building stronger bridges between academia and industry through collaboration and co-creation. Attendees can expect presentations of impactful KTPs, talks from CABER members on how their research aligns with digital construction and climate goals, and a dedicated poster session, especially encouraging PhD students to showcase their work. It’s an essential reminder that research doesn’t exist in a vacuum, and when paired with practical applications, it can drive real innovation in practice.

The event is supported by CABER (Centre for Advanced Built Environment Research) here at UWE, whose generous funding helps make it possible. Events like this work because of people. They succeed because individuals are willing to share, challenge, and collaborate. And they matter because they remind us that meaningful progress only happens when we connect knowledge with action.

As Professor Alice Moncaster, Co-Director of CABER, puts it:

“In the construction sector, ‘digital innovation’ is often spoken of in the same breath as ‘climate action’. But exactly how do our rapidly growing digital tools and skills support the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and the mitigation of climate change? The Digital Construction Climate Nexus on 20th June will provide much-needed clarity on this issue, by bringing together academic and industry experts to present, debate and discuss the hottest topics.”

There’s something powerful about bringing together students, academics, software developers, and industry leaders in one space. It creates the kind of energy where ideas spark into something more tangible.

From Asking to Acting isn’t just a theme. It’s a reminder that every project, every piece of data, and every conversation can either move us closer to change or keep us where we are.

This year, we choose to move.

Rethinking real estate: a new era of valuation

Author Lynn Goh | Posted on

By Rabab Raydan, MSCA Doctoral Researcher at QuiVal

The impact of natural disasters on real estate value

Natural disasters pose a significant threat to real estate value, as they can cause extensive property damage, disrupt market stability, and reshape investor confidence in affected regions. The recorded frequency of natural disasters has risen sharply from 1900 to 2023, with a particularly steep increase observed from the mid-20th century onward. This trend, as shown in Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 below highlight the escalating impact of environmental hazards. The frequency of reported natural disasters has seen also a significant increase from 1970 to 2024, with floods, storms, and extreme temperatures being the most prevalent. Hence, natural disasters are becoming more critical and frequent each year. This growing impact of environmental hazards is detrimental on global communities and real estate markets.

Wildfires, heatwaves, hurricanes, floods and others have resulted in $313 billion in global economic losses in 2022 alone1 on the real estate sector and the projections are still on the rise. These figures are not merely statistics; they signify communities at risk, livelihoods in jeopardy. Despite scientific warnings about rising sea levels, waterfront properties in cities like New York for example remain highly sought after, reflecting a complex interplay between perceived risk and lifestyle aspirations. This paradox illustrates the inadequacy of traditional valuation models, which fail to account for cultural and social factors driving property demand.

Globally, climate change is reshaping property markets, from increasing insurance premiums for coastal properties to shifting demand toward climate-resilient urban areas. Climate action failure is the most severe global risk of the next decade 2.  Starting to increasingly acknowledge climate risk as a key investment consideration can be a key driver in transforming the way the industry works.

Highlighting the urgent need to factor environmental risks into property valuations, it remains a global responsibility to ensure that the impact of climate change on asset performance is well understood.

Figure 1: Types of natural disasters reported globally
Figure 2: Trend in number of disasters globally

QuiVal, a Horizon-Europe funded multi-national project

At the heart of the drive for transformation is QuiVal (Quantum Inspired Valuation of Circular Real Estate). QuiVal focuses on redefining real estate valuation by integrating environmental and societal values, particularly in the context of circular and CO₂-neutral real estate. This transdisciplinary research initiative is a project funded from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme and hosts 13 doctoral research projects across multiple universities in The Netherlands, Italy, Denmark, Estonia, Belgium, the UK, and Switzerland. It brings together eight universities and fourteen practice partners through a collaboration which aims to develop new valuation approaches that account for sustainability, circular economy principles, and digital advancements, and redefine how we assess the true value of the built environment.

This research challenges existing valuation norms and seeks to provide actionable recommendations for implementing new approaches, ensuring that the transition towards circular and climate-conscious real estate valuation is both practical and effective. Inspired by quantum theory, QuiVal embraces the complexity of real-world professional practice, working directly with valuers, investors, and industry experts to drive meaningful change in the built environment answering the urgent call for a novel approach to property valuation.

Figure 3: Transitioning to a circular economy3

CABER’s role within QuiVal

CABER at UWE Bristol is one of the QuiVal project partners. Our doctoral candidate Rabab Raydan is exploring how valuation practices evolve and how structural changes both internal, such as frameworks and data, and external, such as governance and policy, shape professional standards and practices in the industry, under the working title ‘Towards a paradigm shift in real estate valuation’.

Capturing a property’s comprehensive value in a rapidly evolving world is a particularly crucial approach as the digital revolution is reshaping the real estate landscape. A paradigm shift is needed but this is not merely about numbers; it is about storytelling, capturing the full narrative of a property’s value in a world where climate resilience, digital integration, and social dynamics are intertwined. To bridge this gap, it is significantly important to offer frameworks that not only meet regulatory demands but also align with investor priorities and societal expectations. This serves as an answer to the growing emphasis on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria which demands more effort on creating a re-evaluation of how property values are defined.

Supervised by Professor Alice Moncaster and Grazyna Wiejak-Roy, Rabab is working for the next three years alongside the other 12 doctoral candidates as part of this multi-disciplinary, multi-partner consortium to ensure that this applied research can address industry and the real-world complexity. Her project also includes two three-month secondments, with one of the QuiVal industry partners, JLL in London, and with one of the academic partners, ETH in Zurich, Switzerland. In turn, UWE Bristol and CABER will host another of the doctoral candidates, Xinyi Jiang, from the University of Southern Denmark.

Imagine a future where property valuations drive sustainable urban growth, promote community well-being, and support climate-resilient cities. This vision is not only possible but necessary. QuiVal is paving the way for more than financial gain; it is about creating value that endures, ensuring that our built environment supports not just the present but the future of our planet. This is the narrative we are crafting, towards a paradigm shift 4.

References

  1. Value of climate risk: How real estate owners can adapt | JLL. Accessed March 11, 2025.
  2. Global Risks Report 2023: the biggest risks facing the world | World Economic Forum. Accessed February 17, 2025.
  3. Realizing the value of circular economy for real estate development. Accessed March 11, 2025.
  4. Homepage – Quival. Accessed March 11, 2025.

Acknowledgements

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No 101169048.

This work is supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, as listed by UKRI, Grant Ref: EP/Z534791/1.

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