Traffic Oriented Development (TOD) – world connections. Photo by Mohammed Alim: https://www.pexels.com/photo/bullet-train-at-jakarta-station-with-conductor-29928055/
by Paul Hammond
January 2026 will mark the first anniversary of the UK: Ukraine 100 Year Partnership.
So, 99 years to go!
The Partnership is a masterclass in international diplomacy and is rightly celebrated in both London and Kyiv’s administrative circles of power. Its depth, breadth and longevity signal real commitment to values that have sustained, in the main, in post-1945 Europe as the bedrock for civil society and collaboration between nations. The Partnership references defence cooperation, economic and trade integration, transport, infrastructure, energy, innovation, scientific research, and culture, people-to-people links, education, and institutional reform.
As a professional economist with a mainly UK project CV it’s heartening to witness the Government of Ukraine embracing the UK Treasury’s approach to the appraisal of investment business cases (usually called the five-case model or the Green Book). By embedding the UK’s Five Case Model in its public investment framework, Ukraine benefits from a rigorous, transparent, and internationally-aligned system, positioning it for more effective reconstruction, improved public governance, and stronger climate and economic outcomes. The adoption of an internationally recognised standard notably provides the bedrock for Ukraine to attract investment to its construction projects.
Implementing the Five Case business case approach in Ukraine entails far more than guidelines. It will require a coherent overhaul of institutional capacity, data infrastructure, governance structures, strategic alignment processes, and inclusive engagement. Addressing these identified challenges is essential to realising the model’s potential for transparent, responsive, and high-quality public investment.
In recent months it has been a pleasure to consider investment in transport reconstruction in Ukraine – with a focus on real geography and real issues for project planning and delivery in what remains a war zone. What is clear, however, is that major infrastructure investments as economic capital are in competition with each other and with social capital for the attraction of scarce resources. I recently had the pleasure of hosting a delegation from the Government of Ukraine’s Ministry for Development of Communities and Territories where a programme of expenditure was presented covering the Fourth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment which estimates a US $ cost of recovery in excess of $500 billion. This includes:
- Energy and extractives
- Housing
- Transport
- Social protection & services
- Education & science
- Healthcare
- Water supply & sanitation
- Explosive ordnance management
- Emergency response and civil protection
Where does transport feature in this reconstruction planning? There is certainly a “hierarchy of need” but this differs depending on whose views are given priority. Peace and future security, energy, food and housing all feature heavily in conversations about the emphasis and timing / priority for investment and infrastructure spending. Transport less so – other than the systems thinkers, transport planners and development economists who recognise transport as a facilitator of all other demands (a derived demand in fact) and a driver of economic efficiencies, social mobility, access to opportunity and logistics (getting stuff delivered – literally).
Bringing transport investment in country to market requires significant local knowledge, technical know-how, masterplanning, transport planning, travel demand expertise, construction and cost knowledge, and robust economic/business case skills. Transit Oriented Development (TOD) is sitting at the heart of many of Ukraine’s current and planned transport investments balancing this derived demand and access around development economics, and the requirement for investors to deliver risk management and return on investment to their investors.
TOD is the multiplier that maximises the value of every pound / euro / dollar invested in transport infrastructure, turning the transport hub locations into engines of mixed-use development, land value uplift, and long-term economic, social and environmental returns. But…local contacts and cultural understanding are equally important to the delivery of the Government of Ukraine’s plans as the investors’ money – it’s in these social aspects that real sustainability can be found.
This blog was written by Paul Hammond, visiting professor at the Centre for Transport & Society (UWE Bristol).
Paul Hammond is a professional economist committed to building team culture and collaboration in infrastructure development to support economic, social and environmental well-being. He inspires, energises, motivates individuals and teams based on 30 + years’ experience in professional services consultancy.
Paul has held senior leadership roles with global infrastructure firms and delivered infrastructure plans, economics, and business development to deliver commercial success and sustainable, inclusive growth. His focus is on transport and future mobility, climate resilience and net zero, city regeneration and social inclusion, investment business case to deliver sustainable solutions. He is an innovator and award winner e.g., New Civil Engineer 100 award for innovation in infrastructure investments 2018. Paul is a visiting professor at University of West of England, Centre for Transport and Society and capabilities lead for economics at Jacobs.