Energy Contagion in the COVID-19 Crisis

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By Reinhold Heinlein

At the time of the COVID-19 crisis, the oil market has suffered an unprecedented crisis, with the WTI crude oil price dropping into negative territory (-$37.63 per barrel) in April 2020. At the same time, the oil/stock market nexus is not clear cut and limited studies have considered the impact of crises in the oil market. A new working paper by researchers at UWE, Keele and Portsmouth investigates this unique situation.

Using a high frequency dataset (collected at intervals of 5 minutes), for a selected sample of oil importing and exporting countries across G7, BRICS and Scandinavian economies, we demonstrate the existence of an energy contagion, in terms of a consistently higher interdependence between stock markets and the crude-oil market during the COVID-19 driven oil crisis. Such results applies to all countries in our sample, although oil exporters are shown to have been hit more heavily, with Russia exhibiting the highest contagion.

Overall, our results confirm the importance of crude oil on stock markets, which have been shown to behave as a market of one during the recent crisis.

Reference and link: Reinhold Heinlein (Bristol Business School) is currently researching on the link between crude oil prices and stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic, in a new paper, “Energy Contagion in the COVID-19 Crisis” written with Gabriella Legrenzi (Keele University) and Scott Mahadeo (Portsmouth University) and published in the CESifo Working Paper series No. 8345.

View the full working paper here.

Bringing Together Data to provide insights into Earnings & Employment

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The Wage and Employment Dynamics (WED) project aims to bring together data to provide insights into the dynamics of earnings and employment. The aim is to do this by integrating data across individuals across years, jobs, income sources and employers. This is a large project, with significant potential to improve our understanding of wage and employment issues from labour market entry, through job mobility and career progression to retirement decisions.

A team of researchers from UWE, University of London (CUL), UCL, and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) will create a wage and employment spine to do just this. We will train users on the spine and generate research findings of direct interest to policy makers. 

This will entail analysis of:

  • Employment: focusing on the drivers of hourly wages, part- and full-time employment, self-employment, underemployment, and retirement decisions
  • Households: focusing on the structure of households and household resources and the way they affect participation in the labour market, including child care, retirement decisions, and the impact of Universal Credit (UC)
  • Employer perspectives: focusing on how workers achieve wage growth both within and across firms, and how employers react to changing labour market conditions, such as shifts in skills, demand, technology and minimum wages.

At the heart of the project is the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) and New Earnings Survey (NES). These survey datasets derive from a 1% sample of all employees in employment and will be developed to provide a truly longitudinal research resource. An ASHE/NES dataset which has longitudinal integrity across workers and jobs, with consistent referencing across data sets and time, will constitute a valuable research asset in its own right.

In addition, we aim to undertake six major linkage projects, in which we will create robust, documented linkages between the employee records contained in ASHE and data on:

  • enterprises and establishments – contained in the Interdepartmental Business Register, (IDBR);
  • personal and household characteristics – contained in the 2011 Census;
  • educational attainment – contained in HESA (Higher Education Student data);
  • benefit history – contained in DWP benefit records;
  • pay records – contained in HMRC PAYE data;
  • self-employment income – contained in HMRC Self Assessment (SA) records.

Through these various linking projects, we aim to create a core data set which allows integrated analysis of all forms of income across working lives, with the capacity to address a wide range of future analytical requirements. The end goal of the project is to turn this fully-linked dataset into a sustainable ‘wage and employment spine’ (WES), so that researchers no longer need to create new linkages each time. The linked data will be used for research purposes within the project itself, but the spine will form an ongoing resource for researchers. The intention is for the WES to form the basis for linked-data projects beyond 2022, both for academics and government agencies.

To find out more visit the WED website or sign up to their newsletter.

Online Event: Rules vs. Principles-based Regulation: What can we learn from different professions?

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Bristol Centre for Economics and Finance is hosting an online event on 28th May 2020: Rules vs. Principles-based Regulation: What can we learn from different professions?

There is an active debate in many disciplines about the most appropriate approach to regulation and enforcement. The workshop intends to bring together participants from different disciplines to provide an overview of the predominant approaches, along with the respective debates, experiences, and challenges. Common experiences and core issues can be identified.

The workshop aims to spark debate about regulation and whether we, across disciplines, could respond differently to the challenges we face and find novel ways to more efficient regulation.

Obtaining insight into other disciplines’ experiences shall enable us to rethink the predominant approaches. By learning from each other we can ask: Can we do better, both in our own disciplines and the common regulatory landscape? Might there be a better way?

The event is of interest to both public and private sector participants: Policy-makers, government enforcement agencies, academics, and industry professionals in the area of, and affected by, regulation, in various disciplines.

Sign up for this free event here

Workshop programme

13:00 – 13:05 Welcome Professor Felix Ritchie
  Cluster 1 Presentations: Data regulation in the public and private sector
13:05 – 13:15 Data in the public/private sector Design of incentive systems/evidence base Professor Felix Ritchie/Elizabeth Green
13:15 – 13:25 Data in the public sector Organisational trust Andrew Engeli – Office for National Statistics
13:25 – 13:35 Data in the private sector (I) Data Protection & Privacy Martin Hickley – Director Martin Hickley Data Solutions Limited
13:35 – 13:45 Data in the private sector (II) Data Analytics & Privacy Luk Arbuckle – Chief Methodologist Privacy Analytics
13:45 – 14:15 Cluster 1 Discussion
14:15 – 14:25 Break
  Cluster 2 Presentations: Financial markets and accounting
14:25 – 14:35 Rules vs principles in financial markets Financial Regulation & Compliance Expert witness Paul Keenan – Visiting Practitioner Professor in Financial Regulation in the Business and Law Faculty of the University of the West of England (UWE)
14:35 – 14:45 Rules vs principles in accounting (I) Practical accounting & Regulator Perspective Bryan Foss – Digital Non-Executive Director, Risk & Audit Chair, Visiting Professor and Board Readiness Coach
14:45 – 14:55 Rules vs principles in accounting (II) Auditing & Corporate Governance Ismail Adelopo/Florian Meier
14:55 – 15:25 Cluster 2 Discussion
15:25 – 15:35 Break
  Cluster 3 Presentations: Legal perspective and non-financial regulation
15:35 – 15:45 Legal perspective Financial crime Nicholas Ryder – Professor in Financial Crime
15:45 – 15:55 Non-financial regulation Modern slavery and other required reporting Jaya Chakrabarti – CEO Semantrica Ltd (tiscreport)
15:55 – 16:25 Cluster 3 Discussion
16:25 – 16:55 Summary and Closing remarks Nicholas Ryder Professor in Financial Crime

Bribery, Motivations for Bribery and Life Satisfaction in Transitional Countries

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Timothy Hinks paper has just been accepted for publication

The focus on bribery and corruption and its impact on life satisfaction is relatively new in the economics and development studies literature. This paper contributes to this emerging field by asking whether reasons for making informal payments are correlated with life satisfaction. We find that paying bribes negatively correlates with life satisfaction and that those who were extorted by public officials or made an informal payment since they thought it was expected of them reported lower life satisfaction levels. We also find that those who made an informal payment to speed things up or who thought of the payment as a gift reported higher life satisfaction. Reasons for bribery differ in their associated significance with life satisfaction by public service that is used and by income group. For example people who instigated informal payments to public officials in the civil courts report higher life satisfaction bringing into question the integrity of judicial systems in transitional countries.

The paper is paper is published in World Development Perspectives and available online at here.

Book Review “Meta-Analyses of Micro- and Macroeconomic Textbooks” by Sebastian Berger

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Once upon a time, Germany – The Country of Poets and Thinkers (in German: Deutschland – das Land der Dichter und Denker) may have been an accurate description; not least because of the major contributions Germans made to economic thinking from Marx, List and Schmoller, to Weber, Schumacher and Kapp. However, after reading the results of Helge Peukert’s study of economic textbooks assigned at German universities, the uncanny question arises: Germany – country of translators and brainwashers? Indeed, much depends on the validity, meaning, and implications of the findings of one of Germany’s leading heterodox economists who conducted this project at the recently launched pluralist economics program of the University of Siegen, partly financed by the Research Institute for the Progressive Development of Society (Forschungsinstitut für Gesellschaftliche Weiterentwicklung).

Both books are structured as follows: the introductory chapters focus on distinguishing varieties of what may be called neoclassical and heterodox paradigms, or communities. It then develops an analytical framework that consists of meta-paradigmatic elements underlying these paradigms. These elements cross-fertilise the paradigms so that there is no hard boundary between them but rather a complex web of neoclassical and heterodox paradigms. Peukert’s analytical framework is inspired by Ludwik Fleck’s theory of science, which argues that ‘thought collectives’ engage in the social construction of reality based on ‘archetypal ideas’ (read: meta-theoretical elements) that reflect the ‘spirit of the times’. With the aid of this framework, the main chapters assess in detail the dominating micro and macro textbooks, i.e., Varian (2016), Pindyck and Rubinfeld (2015), Mankiw (2016) and Blanchard and Illing (2017). The guiding questions of Peukert’s study are: how scientific or ideological are these textbooks? What meta-paradigmatic elements can be identified in each chapter?

The Causes and Consequences of Trust and Bribery in Society Workshop

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By Dr Tim Hinks

A number of presenters and discussants were invited to this day-long workshop in order to provide an environment in which in-depth and critical discussions on a number of pressing questions in the fields of bribery, corruption and trust was created. 

Presentations covered a variety of different institutional settings and countries including bribes and firm performance in Albania and Kosovo, social capital and institutional trust in Palestine, the impacts of networks, trust and motivations to bribe on life satisfaction and experimental evidence on what makes people cheat. Colleagues from the Burgundy School of Business, Cork University, Aston University, Birkbeck, University College London and within the Bristol Business School made the day a great success with presenters receiving valuable feedback on their work, and pathways to collaborative research in the near future identified. 

In line with this, colleagues are invited to submit abstracts to an up-coming workshop at Birkbeck University on 20th June entitled Institutions and Culture in Economic Contexts.  

Pro-environmental employee and consumer behaviour conference with Dr Peter Bradley

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Current world population is just over seven billion and expected to reach nine billion before 2050. Increasing affluence in the developing and transition countries where population is growing most is now resulting in a wave of “new consumers”. This is important as in the developed world the main drivers for the level and growth of environmental pressures are said to be final consumption and affluence. Technology on its own will not adequately ensure that society stays within environmental limits. Therefore there is a need for serious consideration and research into consumer, employee and entrepreneur behaviours.

In this vain, the Bristol Centre for Economics and Finance (BCEF) is hosting a one day inter-disciplinary conference, organised by Dr Peter Bradley, leader of BCEF’s Sustainability Research Cluster and an expert in sustainability research. Peter’s research explores environmental and energy challenges and governance using empirical evidence based research as well as conceptual and theory based research. The “Pro-environmental employee and consumer behaviour conference” is taking place on 29 April 2019 and registration to attend is now open. Keynote speakers include Jes Rutter from JRP solutions and Dr Mark Everard (Associate Professor of Ecosystem Services, UWE Bristol). For more information and online registration, please see our event page.

 

Call for papers

We invite abstracts from PhD students, researchers and practitioners across the social and natural sciences to present on topics related to ‘pro-environmental consumer and employee behaviour’. Please send a 500 word abstract about your topic and contribution to bcef@uwe.ac.uk by Wednesday 19 December 2018 to be considered for presentations.

 

 

 

 

 

 

UWE Bristol Economics at the 9th IIPPE Annual Conference in Political Economy

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By Sara Stevano, Susan Newman and Lotta Takala-Greenish.

On 12-14th September 2018, the 9th IIPPE Annual Conference in Political Economy took place at Juraj Dobrila University of Pula, Croatia. Keeping up with recent years’ record, UWE Economics was very well represented at the conference! The conference was organised around the overarching theme of ‘The State of Capitalism and the State of Political Economy’ and over 300 scholars and activists from across the world discussed their political economy research, touching upon various facets of capitalist transformations and pushing the frontiers of political economy. The conference organisers reported that many participants thought that this was the best IIPPE conference so far!

Among the keynote speeches were a panel shared by Professor Lena Lavinas, Professor of Welfare Economics at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, and Professor Fiona Tregenna, University of Johannesburg South African Research Chair in Industrialisation stood out for their original content. Professor Lavinas highlighted the shifts in social programmes to increase financial inclusion. She commented on the contribution of social service programmes to GDP, 1.5% for developing and 2.7% of GDP for OECD countries, and connected these to the accumulation of debt among low-income households (see the excellent twitter feed by Ingrid H. Kvangraven). Professor Spread of income transfer programs across Global South have facilitated mass ‘financial inclusion’. The state and international financial institutions also play important role here. Result: Low-income households have accumulated huge amounts of debtSpread of income transfer programs across Global South have facilitated mass ‘financial inclusion’. The state and international financial institutions also play important role here. Result: Low-income households have accumulated huge amounts of debtTregenna focused on the need to unpack different forms of de-industrialisation and to explore the perspective that Marx’s analysis can offer to understanding industrialisation. In particular, her insights included an expanded focus on the heterogeneity within sectors and the inseparability of production and consumption (see also this blog post for further insights on the IIPPE2018 conference).

Spread of income transfer programs across Global South have facilitated mass ‘financial inclusion’. The state and international financial institutions also play important role here. Result: Low-income households have accumulated huge amounts of debtSpread of income transfer programs across Global South have facilitated mass ‘financial inclusion’. The state and international financial institutions also play important role here. Result: Low-income households have accumulated huge amounts of debtReflections on the state of capitalism are very relevant and timely in the context of shifting geographies of production, global relations of power and political discourse. Thus, it is all the more important to discuss how political economy research can help us understand and shape the economic, social and political transformations that mark our time. Critical political economy has an important role to play in transforming and revitalising economics, making it an inclusive and relevant area of study.

The three UWE Economics researchers who were in attendance this year intervened in panels on neoliberalism, the political economy of work, social reproduction and commodity studies. Dr Lotta Takala-Greenish presented her research on Exploring formal/informal work structures in South African waste collection (slides available here) in a panel that was described by the audience as one of the most interesting of the conference. This panel shared with Professor Stephanie Allais of the University of Witwatersrand, put forward important questions about the role of training and learning (both on and off the job) and the connections between education and labour markets. It also provided a forum to discuss and develop future collaborations with the South African Research Chair for Skills Development at the Centre for Researching Education and Labour. Dr Susan Newman presented her joint paper with Sam Ashman on New Patterns in Capital Flight from South Africa and discussed the preliminary findings of her joint paper with Dr Sara Stevano on The neoliberal restructuring of UK Overseas Development Assistance (slides available here), both papers were very appreciated by the audience who thought them revealing and timely. Sara Stevano presented her paper on Women’s work in Mozambique: Gender, social differentiation and social reproduction (slides available here) in a great all-women panel on social reproduction and the political economy of work.

Across several sessions, there was much discussion of the future of pluralist economics and education where UWE economics was highlighted as a leading institution. UWE Economics is now considered as an established centre for critical political economy, with possibly the largest concentration of critical political economists in a UK university. UWE’s recent recruitment of pluralist economists has been noted widely and was reflected in questions about future recruitment plans. Participation of UWE Economics in IIPPE continues to reaffirm the presence of our group in current political economy debates and generates opportunities for collaboration with colleagues in the UK and beyond. UWE Economics academics are involved with IIPPE in various capacities. Susan Newman oversees the content published on the IIPPE website and coordinates the working group on commodities studies; Sara Stevano coordinates the social reproduction working group with Hannah Bargawi (SOAS); Lotta Takala-Greenish set up and previously coordinated the working group on Minerals Energy Complex and Comparative Industrialisation.

One of the key aims of IIPPE is to provide a platform for early career researchers to interact with more established and senior scholars in political economy. The conference provided an opportunity benchmark and share information about postgraduate training in political economy. The UWE MSc in Global Political Economy was mentioned as one of only a handful degrees providing an interdisciplinary political economy approach housed within an economics department. The first intake of UWE’s MSc Global Political Economy students will be submitting their dissertations end of September and are being encouraged to submit their research to present at the next IIPPE conference in July 2019. We are also welcoming our new 2018-2019 MSc students who will no doubt contribute to the active research environment that we have here at UWE Bristol.

 

Review of “Cents and Sensibility- What economics can learn from the humanities”

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By Sebastian Berger.

CENTS AND SENSIBILITY – WHAT ECONOMICS CAN LEARN FROM THE HUMANITIES, by Gary Saul Morson and Morton Schapiro, Princeton University Press: 2017, pp. 307; ISBN 978-0-691-17668-0

The title expresses the main argument of the book under review, which grew out of an interdisciplinary undergraduate course at Northwestern University dealing with the subject matter of “choice”. Its authors are professors of economics (Schapiro) and of Slavic languages and literature (Morson) who think that economics is “too narrow”, which undermines its usefulness for “policy-making”, for “understanding human behaviour”, and for “predicting the future”. The intention is explicitly not to attack economists but to help to expand its “scope and power” via a dialogue-not a fusion-between economics and the humanities. This vision is called “humanomics”, that is, an economics improved through an understanding of story-telling.

The main take-away is that great literature is a great source of wisdom for understanding human beings, which serves to help us make wiser decisions in varying situations. The argument is that great novelists are better at this understanding than social scientists.

The main concerns of the authors are near and dear to many heterodox economists: narrowness of economics and openness to insights from the humanities. Those who are particularly concerned with saving economics from science, in the sense of a mechanism, biologism, or cyborgism, find the basic argument of the book attractive. It is a missed opportunity, however, that the authors do not engage more with the existing literature on modes of intellection in economics, such as story-telling, rhetoric, poetry, metaphors, hermeneutics (the brief mentioning of works by McCloskey and Bronk is unsatisfactory). The entire literature on the role of history, philosophy, and ethics in economics is likewise absent, which is slightly worrying in a book that is concerned with these matters.

The authors do not provide criteria for what they consider valid narratives, while they seem to have no fundamental problems with the capitalist development model. In fact, they continuously refer to development indicators of GDP growth, development of markets, and legal property rights. The comparison between South Korea and Ghana is especially revealing as GDP-growth is taken as the main indicator for economic development. Sustainability, happiness, and inequality indicators are curiously absent from the discussion.

What is missing from the book is a discussion of the social-psychological dimension of economics that would highlight the challenges of implementing “humanomics”. The profession of economics has deep vested interests in its approach, which is thoroughly institutionalized and exhibits psychological barriers to change. (Berger 2016) The suppression of heterodox economists speaks volumes about how the economics profession handles challenges to its ontological and methodological core. (Lee 2009)

What is missing also from the discussion is a mention of those approaches to economics that are actually compatible with the humanities, which are today gathered under the umbrella of heterodox economics. The chapter on alternative foundations for economics provides a critique of behavioural economics for its lack of cultural analysis and calls for a grounding of economics in cultural and institutional inquiry as developed by Adam Smith. The introductory chapter vaguely alludes to a recent turn towards culture in development economics. (p. 9, fn. 11) Heterodox economists would ask why there is no mention of institutional and social economics, and economic anthropology which have developed this approach in detail since Adam Smith. The project of incorporating culture and institutions in economic analysis continued in the works of Karl Marx, the German Historical School, Thorstein Veblen, John M. Keynes, amongst others. Omitting these contributions and their contemporary followers is a severe limitation. Ironically, the chapter outlining the potential contribution of the humanities (ch. 6) proposes the incorporation of the history of ideas as a remedy to the narrowness of economics. (p. 237) I would have loved to see the authors make a start with an appropriate history and evaluation of the fate of those contributions to economics that were actually open to the humanities. This could have informed the readers of this book of the great wealth of existing contributions to this project of grounding economics in the humanities. (cf. Berger 2017)

The full book review has been published by the Heterodox Ecomonics Newsletter is available to read online here.

 

Beyond pay gaps: Inequality at work

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By the researchers of the “Earnings gaps and inequality at work” project, Bristol Business School.

On 25 May 2018, UWE Economics hosted an expert workshop on ‘Beyond Pay Gaps: Inequality at Work’. Six experts were invited to share their reflections, based on their own research, on two questions:

1) What is the nature of inequality at work?

2) Is the pay gap an adequate indicator? If not, how can we improve our assessments of inequality at work?

The key aim was to foster a discussion on how to conceptualise and study inequality at work. In an earlier blog entry the workshop organisers’ provided a response to UWE’s reporting on the gender pay gap, which highlighted the fact that some progression on the gender pay gap is not in itself a sign of overall success. There are aspects of inequality at work that are captured by pay indicators and nonetheless merit our attention.

The morning session of the workshop focused on conceptualisations of inequality at work and featured the presentations of three distinguished scholars of labour and inequality. Dr Alessandra Mezzadri (SOAS University of London) drew on her long-standing research on the garment industry in India to highlight patterns of inequality and gender exploitation. Professor Bridget O’Laughlin (Institute of Social Studies) reflected on the concepts of Marx’s political economy framework as well as its conceptual gaps to study inequality at work. Professor Harriet Bradley (UWE Bristol) illustrated how a three-part conceptual framework based on production, reproduction and consumption can be used to conceptualise gender inequality at work.

In the afternoon session, three distinguished academics on gender, organisation and inequality presented on methodological approaches to study inequality at work. Dr Hannah Bargawi (SOAS University of London) discussed how a pyramid-shaped understanding of inequality at work can guide us through moving our focus between different levels of inequality. Dr Olivier Ratle (UWE Bristol) presented the qualitative methods used to study early career academics’ experience of work. Dr Vanda Papafilippou (UWE Bristol) described a range of methods from the field of sociology of education to study the workplace.

The presentations generated rich discussions on the conceptualisations of social reproduction, the complexity of inequality and the relations between the material and the cultural. The participants agreed that research on these themes is both timely and needed. Furthermore, a podcast series on ‘Feminism, Gender and the Economy’ featuring two interviews with workshop speakers will be launched in 2018/2019 academic year. Watch this space for the upcoming podcast series!

This workshop was funded by UWE Bristol. The workshop’s organisers are grateful to all participants for their thoughtful contributions and productive discussions.