Energy Contagion in the COVID-19 Crisis

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By Reinhold Heinlein

At the time of the COVID-19 crisis, the oil market has suffered an unprecedented crisis, with the WTI crude oil price dropping into negative territory (-$37.63 per barrel) in April 2020. At the same time, the oil/stock market nexus is not clear cut and limited studies have considered the impact of crises in the oil market. A new working paper by researchers at UWE, Keele and Portsmouth investigates this unique situation.

Using a high frequency dataset (collected at intervals of 5 minutes), for a selected sample of oil importing and exporting countries across G7, BRICS and Scandinavian economies, we demonstrate the existence of an energy contagion, in terms of a consistently higher interdependence between stock markets and the crude-oil market during the COVID-19 driven oil crisis. Such results applies to all countries in our sample, although oil exporters are shown to have been hit more heavily, with Russia exhibiting the highest contagion.

Overall, our results confirm the importance of crude oil on stock markets, which have been shown to behave as a market of one during the recent crisis.

Reference and link: Reinhold Heinlein (Bristol Business School) is currently researching on the link between crude oil prices and stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic, in a new paper, “Energy Contagion in the COVID-19 Crisis” written with Gabriella Legrenzi (Keele University) and Scott Mahadeo (Portsmouth University) and published in the CESifo Working Paper series No. 8345.

View the full working paper here.

Bringing Together Data to provide insights into Earnings & Employment

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The Wage and Employment Dynamics (WED) project aims to bring together data to provide insights into the dynamics of earnings and employment. The aim is to do this by integrating data across individuals across years, jobs, income sources and employers. This is a large project, with significant potential to improve our understanding of wage and employment issues from labour market entry, through job mobility and career progression to retirement decisions.

A team of researchers from UWE, University of London (CUL), UCL, and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) will create a wage and employment spine to do just this. We will train users on the spine and generate research findings of direct interest to policy makers. 

This will entail analysis of:

  • Employment: focusing on the drivers of hourly wages, part- and full-time employment, self-employment, underemployment, and retirement decisions
  • Households: focusing on the structure of households and household resources and the way they affect participation in the labour market, including child care, retirement decisions, and the impact of Universal Credit (UC)
  • Employer perspectives: focusing on how workers achieve wage growth both within and across firms, and how employers react to changing labour market conditions, such as shifts in skills, demand, technology and minimum wages.

At the heart of the project is the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) and New Earnings Survey (NES). These survey datasets derive from a 1% sample of all employees in employment and will be developed to provide a truly longitudinal research resource. An ASHE/NES dataset which has longitudinal integrity across workers and jobs, with consistent referencing across data sets and time, will constitute a valuable research asset in its own right.

In addition, we aim to undertake six major linkage projects, in which we will create robust, documented linkages between the employee records contained in ASHE and data on:

  • enterprises and establishments – contained in the Interdepartmental Business Register, (IDBR);
  • personal and household characteristics – contained in the 2011 Census;
  • educational attainment – contained in HESA (Higher Education Student data);
  • benefit history – contained in DWP benefit records;
  • pay records – contained in HMRC PAYE data;
  • self-employment income – contained in HMRC Self Assessment (SA) records.

Through these various linking projects, we aim to create a core data set which allows integrated analysis of all forms of income across working lives, with the capacity to address a wide range of future analytical requirements. The end goal of the project is to turn this fully-linked dataset into a sustainable ‘wage and employment spine’ (WES), so that researchers no longer need to create new linkages each time. The linked data will be used for research purposes within the project itself, but the spine will form an ongoing resource for researchers. The intention is for the WES to form the basis for linked-data projects beyond 2022, both for academics and government agencies.

To find out more visit the WED website or sign up to their newsletter.

Fear of Robots and Life Satisfaction

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Tim Hink’s  article “Fear on Robots and Life Satisfaction” is forthcoming in the International Journal of Social Robotics.

The use of robots and in particular next-generation robots in the production of goods and services is increasing. What impact robots are having on people’s quality of life, including workers, is as yet under-explored. This paper provides initial findings examining whether fear of robots is correlated with one aspect of quality of life: life satisfaction. After controlling for individual effects and country effects and using both standard ordinary least squares and a linear multilevel regression model, we find fear of robots correlates with lower reported life satisfaction. There are differences in the fear of robots and life satisfaction by age group, by how long countries have been members of the European Union and by whether we control for attitudes towards other things. Presently the governance of emerging science and innovation that includes next-generation robots, roboticists and technologists is a “major challenge to contemporary democracies” (Stilgoe et al, 2013, p.1568). Along with others we call for a more responsible innovation framework that includes all stakeholders in the innovation process to understand where I4.0 can best be used in national and international interests.